Turkmenistan’s outlook for 2019 is highly uncertain. Yet three broad trends in the Turkmen state, society, and economy are going to influence life over the next 12 months.

Higher resource prices and Russia’s decision to resume purchases of Turkmen gas from January 2019 will somewhat alleviate the stress on Turkmenistan’s elite structure this year, as more revenues are again becoming available to distribute to key players in the country.